Geopolitics Daily 12 Jan 26
12 Jan 26
At the geostrategic level at Home, Canada and the U.S. say two preclearance projects that would allow more travellers to be screened well in advance of crossing the border are set to proceed this year after many months of planning. The assurances follow US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra’s comments that cast doubt on the future of arrangements currently allowing many passengers flying to American cities to be pre-cleared at Canadian airports by US border officers. Hoekstra suggested at a conference in Alberta last September that Washington might have to rethink preclearance because of the decline in Canadian travel to the US prompted by frosty bilateral relations. Excerpt From: “Preclearance operations in Canada are a “critical component” of border strategy: U.S.” (CP)
Federal officials briefing reporters ahead of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China say there might be relief coming soon on Chinese tariffs, but not a total end to the dispute with Beijing. Carney is scheduled to leave Tuesday for a three-day visit to Beijing, the first by a sitting prime minister in more than eight years. Excerpt From: “Officials say Canada unlikely to get Chinese tariffs dropped but can expect progress.” (CP)
The Commander of North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD). US General Gregory Guillot said there has been a subtle but significant shift in what NORAD has been seeing over the last year when it comes to mostly Russian, but also Chinese, activity in the Arctic. Guillot said that air and sea incursions into the zones just outside North America have not only become more frequent, but also more co-ordinated. “I’d say the most consequential difference in 2025 has been the volume, the simultaneous volume.” Guillot said “sometimes we’ll have, instead of a ship, there might be four or five ships at the same time operating in various parts of the Arctic Ocean down into the Bering area.” And then a few hours later, he said, there will be an air incursion in a different part of the region. That kind of activity, defence analysts say, is intended to test the reaction of the US and Canadian militaries. As of late December 2025, NORAD had publicly acknowledged at least eight separate events in 2025 where it detected and tracked Russian military aircraft operating in the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). The events all took place in international airspace, near but not inside North American airspace. Excerpt From: “Russia and China co-operating more often and more closely in the Arctic, says NORAD commander.” (CBC)
In the Americas, US President Donald Trump is expected to assist Iranians protesting nationwide against Iran’s ruling establishment. “Trump has essentially decided to help the protesters in Iran. What he has not yet decided is the ‘how’ and the ‘when.’” (@IranIntl_en)
Trump has warned “Iran seems to have crossed my red line...some of [the protesters] were shot...I am getting an hourly report, and we are going to make a determination...We’ll consider targets that they wouldn’t even believe.” (@FaytuksNetwork)
US President Donald J. Trump is weighing a series of potential military options in Iran following the deadly protests. (@sentdefender)
Trump told reporters that the US would hit “targets you wouldn’t believe” and at “levels you wouldn’t believe” if Iran were to hit US military and commercial targets in response to a US attack. (@FaytuksNetwork)
US President Donald J. Trump has announced that, effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republican of Iran will pay a tariff of 25 percent on any and all business done with the US. (@realDonaldTrump)
A US official told Al-Jazeera that planning for strikes against Iran has reached “advanced stages,” and that American Forces across the Middle East are prepared for any contingency or retaliation from Iran. (@sentdefender)
The White House is weighing a last-ditch Iranian offer to engage in diplomacy over curbing its nuclear program, even as President Donald J. Trump currently leans toward authorizing fresh military strikes on Iran in response to deadly crackdowns on anti-regime protests in the country. (@sentdefender/WSJ)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt states that airstrikes are “one of the many, many option that are on the table” for President Trump to use against Iran but adds that diplomacy is always the first option for the President. (@sentdefender)
Donald Trump warned Cuba to strike a deal with him “before it’s too late” in a blistering Truth Social post early Sunday morning. Excerpt From: “Trump Issues New Takeover Warning to Neighboring Country in Morning Rant.” (The Daily Beast)
With five oil tankers seized, and more US military action promised, the world’s fleet of so-called shadow tankers that ferry sanctioned crude are quickly hoisting a new flag: the Russian tricolor. Their hope is that by operating under the flag of a country with a strong navy they might be able to skirt the US blockade on Venezuelan oil movements and avoid interception by the Coast Guard. Excerpt From: “Russian Flags Proliferate Over Shadow Fleet of Oil Tankers.” (WSJ)
A US aircraft carrier deployed in the South China Sea recently conducted live-fire drills to test its last line of defense amid China’s growing missile threat, designed to sink warships and counter the American military presence in the Pacific. The US Navy said the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group were conducting “routine operations” in the South China Sea as part of regular patrols in the broader Indo-Pacific region to deter aggression and promote peace through strength.” Excerpt From: “US aircraft carrier conducts live-fire drills amid Chinese missile threat. (NW)
The US has unveiled Blackbeard GL, a new hypersonic strike missile for rocket artillery forces. Designed as a low cost, mass producible weapon, it offers a reported range of up to 1,000-km and the ability to hit moving targets. Compatible with HIMARS (M142) and M270 launchers, the program, led by Castelion, aims for full readiness by 2027. (@Defence_Index)
In Africa, Tanzanian security forces fired on fleeing protesters and carried out “execution-style killings” during election unrest last year, according to a report released Monday that verified online images alongside drone and satellite footage. The Centre for Information Resilience (CIR), a UK-based independent organisation that carries out digital investigations, collected and analysed evidence from the unrest that broke out during the October 29 election in Tanzania. Violent protests erupted after the government of President Samia Suluhu Hassan was accused of barring her main opponents and carrying out a spate of abductions and murders ahead of the election. Excerpt From: “’Execution-style killings’ in Tanzania election crackdown: report.” (AFP)
In the Middle East, an Israeli-backed Palestinian militia said on Monday it had killed a senior Hamas police officer in the southern Gaza Strip, an incident which Hamas blamed on “Israeli collaborators”. A statement from the Hamas-run interior ministry said gunmen opened fire from a passing car, killing Mahmoud Al-Astal, head of the criminal police unit in Khan Younis, in the south of the enclave. It described the attackers as “collaborators with the occupation.” Excerpt From: “Israeli-backed group kills a senior Hamas police officer in Gaza, threatens more attacks.” (Reuters)
The IDF in terms of the Gaza Operation holds to the Yellow Line with the 98th Paratrooper Division, 36th Armoured Division, and 162nd Division, 99th Division and 143rd Division. (IDF)
West Bank
The IDF has expressed concern over the trend’s impact on regional stability and doubts the Israel Police’s efficacy in curbing the violence. The escalation, marked by a 25 percent increase in 2025 over the previous year, is linked to the rapid expansion of West Bank farms. Excerpt From: “Settler violence against Palestinians in West Bank rose 25 percent in 2025, IDF finds.” (Haaretz)
Zaid Kharraz, the Hamas terrorist who fired toward IDF troops in Nablus and injured an IDF soldier has been arrested. (@IDF)
Israeli Strategic-Political
Military sources have warned Iran is still exposed to airstrikes since Israel destroyed its air defenses in June; Tehran should think twice before provoking Israel. (@IsrealRadar_com)
Israeli intelligence assesses the Ayatollah Regime in Iran has reached its most fragile point since 1999, as officials believe the number of protesters killed has now surpassed 1,000 and the assumption is that if the protests continue to grow at the current pace, there is a real threat to the stability of the regime. (@sentdefender)
Jordan
The IDF “Gilead Division,” will oversee security along the eastern front. (IDF)
Lebanon
The IDF’s, 91st Division is deployed to northern Israel for operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. (IDF)
The IDF eliminated in southern Lebanon a terrorist involved in restoring the military infrastructure of the Hezbollah terrorist organization. (@IDF)
Syria
The IDF has a Reserve Brigade operating in or near Syria. (IDF)
Iraq
Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah says that a US war against Iran is ‘not a picnic, but instead a fire, that if ignited will not be extinguished until your noses are rubbed in the dirt.’ (@spectatorindex)
Iran
Iran’s Prosecutor General Mohammad Movahedi-Azad warns Iranian officials who are “playing into the enemy’s hands” to be “mindful of the messages and consequences of their words and behavior.” (@FaytuksNetwork)
Iran’s digital blackout has now deployed military jammers to shut down access to Starlink. “Despite reports that tens of thousands of Starlink units are operating inside Iran, the blackout has also reached satellite connections. It is reported that about 30 percent of Starlink’s uplink and downlink traffic was initially disrupted, quickly rising to more than 80 percent,” according to the Iranian opposition news website IranWire. (@sentdefender)
Fars News Agency, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that the US government has taken down the .com domain of the Islamic Regime Tasnim News Agency. (@InsiderGeo)
IRGC Colonel Mahdi Rahimi has been killed by anti-regime protesters. (@visegrad24)
Unconfirmed reports suggest that a suicide drone has killed Reza Kasab, commander of the missile array of the IRGC in Kashan.
Brigadier General Javad Keshavarz, commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ counternarcotics police, who used to participate in suppressing protests in the city, was reportedly ELIMINATED during clashes with demonstrators. (@EliAfriatISR)
Protests continued in Tehran and in northern Iran on Sunday despite a near-total internet blackout, as security forces used lethal force nationwide and reports from activists and medical sources pointed to hundreds, possibly thousands, killed. (@IranIntl_en)
Iran said Monday it is prepared for war after US President Donald Trump threatened military intervention over a crackdown on protests that activists say has killed at least 544 people. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a conference of foreign ambassadors in Tehran broadcast by state television that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not seeking war but is fully prepared for war.” Excerpt From: “Tehran ‘fully prepared for war’ as Trump warns of military action over protests.” (Euronews)
In the Indo-Pacific, the sister of Kim Jong-un has warned of “terrible consequences” following North Korean claims that it shot down two spy drones from South Korea, which had been photographing military sites and a uranium mine close to the border. Kim Yo-jong, a senior figure in Pyongyang who sometimes serves as spokeswoman for her brother, praised the South Korean government for its response to the alleged incursion which, it insists, was not the work of Seoul’s armed forces. But she said that, even if the drones were not sent by the government, it must take responsibility for the incursion. Excerpt From: “North Korea warns of ‘terrible consequences’ after drone incursion.” (The Times of London)
South Korea
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said that a dispute between China and Japan was not desirable for regional peace, adding that Seoul would not meddle in the ongoing row. Excerpt From: South Korea president says Japan-China dispute not desirable for regional peace.” (Reuters)
Japan
Japan’s ruling party is planning to dissolve the country’s lower house later this month and opt for snap elections in February. This comes after reports during the weekend that the ruling party plans to capitalise on the Japanese Prime Minister’s high approval ratings. (@InsiderGeo)
China
President Xi Jinping on Monday said China’s anti-corruption fight was a battle the country cannot lose, striking a firmer tone in a long-term drive to tackle the graft that has plagued many parts of Chinese society. Beijing’s “high-pressure campaign” in recent years has led to many high-profile investigations, reflecting Xi’s more than decade-long drive to root out corruption and enforce discipline in the ruling Communist Party. Excerpt From: “Xi stresses the need to win the fight against corruption in China.” (Reuters)
Imagery captured by the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 satellites on Saturday shows an aircraft carrier leaving Yuchi Naval Base in Qingdao, northeastern China, heading east, while another aircraft carrier remained at the base near the Yellow Sea. A Japan-based Chinese military observer on the social media platform X, type36512, said the outbound aircraft carrier was the Fujian, which departed its home port at Yulin Naval Base near Sanya in southern China and transited the Taiwan Strait last December. Excerpt From: “Satellites capture Chinese aircraft carrier’s movements.” (NW)
In Europe, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said “It is now up to Russia to show it is interested in peace, after Kyiv and its allies agreed on a peace plan and security guarantees that would take effect following a ceasefire.” Excerpt From: “Onus now on Russia to show it wants peace in Ukraine, says EU’s von der Leyen.” (Reuters)
NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Alexus Grynkewich said on the Arctic that Chinese and Russian vessels are not studying seals or polar bears. They are conducting bathymetric surveys and trying to figure out how they can counter NATO capabilities. This is not for peaceful purposes. (@Osint613)
NATO is considering steps to boost monitoring around Greenland, including an “Arctic Sentry” plan using aircraft and naval assets to protect key infrastructure, with Denmark expected to lead. (@Osint613)
UK
The British government said on Sunday that it will develop a new deep-strike ballistic missile for Ukraine to support the country’s war efforts against Russia. Under the project, named Nightfall, the British government said it has launched a competition to rapidly develop ground-launched ballistic missiles that could carry a 200-kg warhead over a range of more than 500-km. Excerpt From: “Britain to develop new ballistic missile for Ukraine’s defense.” (Reuters)
Belgium
NATO should launch an operation in the Arctic to address US security concerns, Belgium’s Defence Minister told Reuters on Sunday, urging transatlantic unity amid growing European unease about US President Donald Trump’s push to take control of Greenland.” Excerpt From: “NATO should launch operation to boost security in Arctic, Belgian minister says.”
(Reuters)
France
France said on Monday it was launching a campaign to recruit thousands of young people for a new 10-month voluntary national military service, with the first participants starting their service in September. The scheme, unveiled by President Emmanuel Macron in November, is open to all young French citizens aged 18-25 eager “to play a part in the nation’s capacity to resist in an uncertain environment,” the chief of staff of the armed forces, General Fabien Mandon told a press conference. Excerpt From: “France launches recruitment campaign for new voluntary military service.” (Reuters)
Germany
A group of European countries, led by Britain and Germany, is discussing plans to boost their military presence in Greenland to show US President Donald Trump that the continent is serious about Arctic security. Excerpt From: “UK, Germany discuss NATO forces in Greenland to calm US threat, Bloomberg News reports.” (Reuters)
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday he expects the United States to continue to protect Greenland together with Denmark, but ongoing talks would determine the exact nature of the collaboration. Excerpt From: “Germany’s Merz expects US participation in Greenland’s protection. (Reuters)
Sweden
Sweden orders 20,000 protective masks for civil defense, ensuring rescue workers can operate safely in smoke, chemical, biological, or nuclear environments. At the same time, a new short-range air defense system will protect cities, and critical infrastructure. (@insiderGeo)
Finland
Authorities in Finland released a vessel on Monday that had been seized on suspicion of damaging an undersea cable linking Helsinki and Estonia’s capital Tallinn on 31st December, though one crew member remains in custody. Three other crew members remain subject to a travel ban as Finnish authorities continue their investigation. The Fitburg, a 132-metre-long cargo ship that had left St Petersburg in Russia and was sailing to the Israeli port of Haifa was detained on New Year’s Eve following suspicion that the ship’s anchor had damaged a telecoms cable in the Gulf of Finland. Excerpt From: “Cargo vessel suspected of damaging undersea cable allowed to leave Finland.” (Euronews)
Croatia
After a break of almost two decades, young men in Croatia are being called up for military service with the reintroduction of conscription. Excerpt From: “Croatia reintroduces conscription after 17 years.”
(DW)
Ukraine War
Across the theatre, Russia launched 53 air strikes involving 151 guided aerial bombs, 5273 kamikaze drones and 2941 artillery shells. (GSAFU)
Ukrainian forces attacked eight Russian troop concentrations and major targets. (GSAFU)
On the ground, Russian forces recently advanced in the Borova, Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka, and Hulyaipole directions and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Excerpt From: “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2026.” (ISW)
Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed control of the village of Bilohirya in Ukraine’s southeastern Zaporizhia region. Excerpt From: “Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,418.” (Al Jazeera)
Ukraine’s military said it had made “direct hits” on three drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea belonging to Russia’s Lukoil oil firm. The military said it hit the V Filanovsky, Yuri Korchagin and Valery Grayfer platforms. Excerpt From: “Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,418.”
(Al Jazeera)
Note: The Geopolitics Daily represents a subjective professional edited compendium and analysis of open-source materials that include but are not limited to CBC, CTV, Global, National Post (NP), The Globe and Mail (GM), Toronto Star (TS), Toronto Sun, Washington Post (WP), New York Times (NYT), Washington Times (WT) US Naval Institute (USNI), Wall Street Journal (WSJ), NBC, ABC, CNN, Fox, Bloomberg, Newsweek (NW), National Interest (NI), Business Insider (BI), Politico, Stars and Stripes (SS), The Times (TT), Financial Times (FT), The Guardian, The Telegraph, DW, AP, Reuters, UPI, Al, BBC, AFP, Jazeera (AJ), Kyiv Independent (KI), Jane’s, RUSI, IISS, ISW, Defense News (DN), UK Defence Journal (UKDJ), The Economic Times (TET), South China Morning Post (SCMP ), Global Times (GT), Times of Israel (TOI) Jerusalem Post, (JP) Israel Defence Forces (IDF), General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSAFU), Iran International English (IIE), Yemen Online, Visegrad 24, DailyNK.com, Irrawaddy.com, MalayMail, Hindustan Times, India Reports, News IADN, Business World, Asia Times, Noel Report, Defence Blog, France 24, Military Watch, Real Clear Defense, Real Clear World, Military Times, Military.com, USNI, Defense One, Breaking Defense, and Twitter.
Joe Varner is the deputy director of the Conference of Defence Associations, a senior fellow of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and the Center for North American Prosperity and Security in Washington, D.C.